Is Arizona Really Red?

Is Arizona really a red state?  

There are plenty of reasons to assume that Arizona is a red state.  After all, isn't it a haven for old people living "active lifestyles," zipping around in golf carts by day and playing pinochle at night?  We all know that old folks vote, and we all know that they're conservative, right?  RIGHT?  And of course, there are all of those rich people wandering the artificially quaint streets of Old Town Scottsdale, looking in shop windows and saying things like, "Look, honey, wouldn't that look lovely on the mantle?"  The stereotypical Arizonan has white hair, white skin, perfect white teeth, white shorts, black socks and white shoes - and looks like he/she stepped out of a Viagra commercial.  People like that would obviously have much to fear from of hordes of poor people coming across the border to cut their grass, trim their oleanders, lay their Saltillo, deliver their enchiladas, and then return to their barrios far, far away- right?

And Arizona's politicians are almost all Republican, so that certainly cements the stereotype in the minds of Americans.  

Yup, Arizona is definitely a red state.

Or maybe not. It is hard to tell, since so much of what we "know" is what we glean from words and images fed to us from elsewhere.  In reality, only a teeny-weeny minority of Arizonans ever get interviewed by the press or shown on TV.  Bernie Sanders attracted thousands of supporters to his rallies in Phoenix.  The rallies were almost completely ignored by the local media, but enthusiastic Bernie supporters stood in line in the hot sun until they almost sank into the gooey asphalt.  If they hadn't been so peaceful, perhaps the rally would have been covered by the press.  Maybe a few thousand people at a Bernie Sanders rally, though, just really aren't enough people to deserve media attention.  Compare Bernie's thousands to the President's massive support.  As President, Mr. Trump drew 15,000 flag-waving, cap-wearing, friends to the Phoenix Civic Center.  That's a lot of supporters.  The Phoenix metro area has a population of about 4.5 million people, so the fact that a sitting President's rhetoric could draw a whole one-third of one percent shows just how massive his support is.  And those thousands just must be the tip of an enormous iceberg.  His supporters were far greater in number than those who protested outside and were tear-gassed by police.  But Phoenix, 2017 was no Chicago, 1968.  You'd need a Vietnam to get those kinds of protests.

And we shouldn't overestimate the importance of the 70,000 underpaid teachers and their friends who showed up to protest the fact that Trump ally, Governor Doug Ducey, offered only a 1% raise after funding cuts a decade before had decimated their incomes.  That's only 70,000 teachers and sympathizers - nobody important.  And besides, Arizona state government workers (excluding political appointees, of course) have not received a raise in ten years, but you don't hear them whining (at least not on television or radio) despite the fact that rents have skyrocketed to $1,400/month in the Phoenix area.  "But what about the unions?" you ask.  Well, unions aren't allowed for government workers.  Arizona is a red state.

Some say that Arizona is turning purple. They point out that Democrat Kyrsten Sinema will probably be the next Senator from Arizona (over the strong objections of the state Republican Party, which filed a lawsuit to stop the vote count).  What does Sinema stand for?  Nobody knows, really.  As a Congresswoman, she voted with the President 62% of the time.  Her opponent, a really distasteful woman by the name of McSally, as a Congresswoman, voted with Trump 97% of the time.  So Sinema certainly isn't blue, but she's not as red as McSally.  That MIGHT indicate that the shade of Arizona's blush is changing.  

But given Arizona's slave wages and human rights history, one does wonder whether Trump's support and the consistent election of Republicans really reflect the will of the people.  The Democratic Party routinely puts up lackluster candidates for major offices and then doesn't seem to fund their campaigns well. Often, these candidates seem to be watered-down, lukewarm Republicans whose only positive attributes are that they aren't angry and they don't spew hatred.  Sinema seems to be that kind of Democrat, and the fact that she now appears to be winning the vote count might only indicate that McSally was just too vile, too inarticulate, and too unsympathetic.  McSally tried to ride the President's coattails ("border wall," "invasion," "border wall," "terrorism," "border wall," "aren't you doing better now?"), but she may have fallen off.  We'll know when the votes are counted (and probably recounted). 

Here's a theory:  Arizona isn't blue, but it might not be very red.  Perhaps the Republicans have been winning by default for all of these years.  Perhaps the Republicans who, until recently, were counting the votes were not counting them accurately.  Perhaps the cause of Arizona's redness is not conservatism or even apathy, but despair.  Perhaps all of the above.